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PV Market To Reach Nearly 17 GW This Year

Posted On:
November 2, 2015
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United States
» Colorado

The global PV market is forecast to exceed 16 GW in 2010, according to recently released projections from IMS Research. Demand for PV systems is predicted to more than double in 2010, with the top five markets accounting for more than 13 GW, although slower growth is predicted in 2011.IMS Research says the release of its updated forecasts follows an updated survey of cell, module and inverter suppliers, as well as major system integrators.

The results revealed that the global PV market will easily pass the 16 GW mark in 2010, driven by strong demand in several European countries, most notably Germany, as well as in North America and China.According to the results, which are based on an analysis of the likely 2010 results for more than 150 suppliers, as well as a detailed demand-based model of more than 50 key PV markets, global PV demand will grow by more than 100% in 2010.European markets are also predicted to grow by more than 100%. Although the Asian PV market is forecast to grow even faster, European countries are still predicted to account for close to 80% of all new PV installations this year.

"PV demand has been extremely robust this year, with high demand in major European markets such as Germany, Italy, France and Czech Republic driven by impending cuts to incentives," says PV Research Director Ash Sharma. "This is compounded by the long-awaited emergence of the U.S. and China, which will see exceptional growth this year and are set to become key global PV markets over the next five years.""Global demand totaled around 8 GW in the first half of 2010, and all of our indicators show that the rest of the year will be as strong, if not stronger, resulting in a market of more than 16 GW," Sharma adds.However, IMS Research predicts a considerable slowdown in growth in 2011, with the industry's needing to deal with major revisions to key countries’ incentive schemes and potential over capacity and price pressure throughout the supply chain.

Photovoltaic system installations in Germany in the first half of this year are estimated at 3 GW, reaffirming Germany's leadership position in the solar market, according to Germany Trade and Invest, a foreign trade and inward investment agency of the Federal Republic of Germany.In 2009, Germany accounted for approximately one of every two newly installed modules worldwide, with total installations totaling 3.8 GW for the year.Amendments to the PV feed-in tariffs (FITs) in Germany's Renewable Energies Act (EEG) were passed in early July and a further adjustment to the FITs will take effect Oct. 1.

The changes mark a further shift toward the rooftop segment by abandoning field installations on cropland and increasing the attractiveness of the self-consumption bonus for small- and medium-scale rooftop installations.The FIT rates were reduced by 13% for rooftop installations and eliminated for cropland field installations beginning July 1. At the same time, conversion areas saw a reduction of 8%, and all other areas were decreased by 12%. Beginning Oct. 1, these rates will be reduced by a further 3%.

Still, the new tariffs remain highly attractive, with rates ranging from 25.02 eurocents/kWh to 34.05 eurocents/kWh for installations connected before Oct. 1 and 24.26 eurocents/kWh to 33.03 eurocents/kWh for those connected during the remainder of the year.The changes to the EEG are a reaction to the increased price competitiveness of photovoltaic systems, including the recent price drop for solar panels and components. By 2013, energy from PV sources is expected to be competitive with conventional energy sources in the electricity market for private consumers.
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